Our objective is to engage in innovative research that extends the frontiers of the discipline, deepening our understanding of the operation of modern economies. Research spans almost all the major sub-fields of economics with particular strengths in microeconomic theory, including behavioural economics; econometrics, both micro-econometrics and time series; economic history and development and international economics.

The University of Oxford is ranked 8th in the world and 2nd in Europe in the most recent Tilburg University ranking of Economics departments, based on research contribution for the period between 2012-2016.

In the most recent Research Excellence Framework (REF 2014) to evaluate the research output of UK Universities, Oxford was first in overall research strength in Economics and Econometrics, with more research ranked as ‘world-leading’ than any other participating institution. In a submission of 84 FTE academics, 56% of our research was rated as ‘world-leading’ (4*) and a further 33% rated as ‘internationally excellent’ (3*).

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As one of Europe’s leading Economics departments, Oxford aims to inform and improve the development and implementation of economic and public policy in the UK and around the world. We do this by producing innovative research that extends the frontiers of the discipline and deepens our understanding of the operation of modern economies.

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Working Papers

Authors: C. Knick Harley

May 2019

Authors: Christa N. Brunnschweiler, Steven Poelhekke

May 2019

Does institutional change in the petroleum sector lead to more oil and gas ex-ploration and discoveries? Foreign ownership and investment in the sector has tra-ditionally been unrestricted. We document that this is no longer the case; foreign-domestic partnerships are the norm today. Tracking changes in legislation between 1867 and 2008 for a panel of countries, we show that switching to foreign ownership results in more drilling and more discoveries of petroleum than domestic ownership. Switching to partnership yields even more drilling, but yields fewer discoveries. Dis¬coveries, and the intensity and quality of exploration drilling, are endogenous to industry-specific institutional change.

JEL Codes: E02, O43, Q30

Keywords: discoveries, oil and gas, natural resources, institutions

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Authors: Bent Nielsen, , Vanessa Berenguer Rico, Søren Johansen

May 2019

An extended and improved theory is presented for marked and weighted empirical processes of residuals of time series regressions. The theory is motivated by 1-step Huber-skip estimators, where a set of good observations are selected using an initial estimator and an updated estimator is found by applying least squares to the selected observations. In this case, the weights and marks represent powers of the regressors and the regression errors, respectively. The inclusion of marks is a non-trivial extention to previous theory and requires refined martingale arguments.

JEL Codes: C130

Keywords: 1-step Huber-skip; Non-stationarity; Robust Statistics; Stationarity

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Authors: Stephen Broadberry, Leigh Gardner

Mar 2019

Estimates of GDP per capita are provided on an annual basis for eight Sub-Saharan African economies for the period since 1885. Although the growth experienced in most of SSA since the mid-1990s has had historical precedents, there have also been episodes of negative growth or “shrinking”, so that long run progress has been limited. Despite some heterogeneity across countries, this must be seen as a disappointing performance for the region as a whole, given the possibilities of catch-up growth. Avoiding episodes of shrinking needs to be given a higher priority in understanding the transition to sustained economic growth.

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This paper investigates how counterterrorism that targets terrorist leaders, and thereby undermines control within terrorist organizations, affects terrorist attacks. The pa¬per exploits a natural experiment provided by strikes by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (drones) ‘hitting’ and ‘missing’ terrorist leaders in Pakistan. Results suggest that ter¬rorist groups increase the number of attacks they commit after a drone ‘hit’ on their leader, compared to after a ‘miss’. This increase amounts to 29 terrorist attacks (43%) worldwide per group in the six months after a drone strike. Game theory provides sev¬eral explanations for the observed effect. Additional analysis of heterogenous effects across groups, and the impact of drone hits on the timing, type and target of attacks, attacks by affiliated terrorist groups, infighting and group splintering, indicates that aggravated problems of control (principal-agent and collective action problems) explain these results better than alternative theoretical mechanisms.

JEL Codes: D74, F5, O10

Keywords: Terrorism, Targeted Leader Killing, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

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