Our objective is to engage in innovative research that extends the frontiers of the discipline, deepening our understanding of the operation of modern economies. Research spans almost all the major sub-fields of economics with particular strengths in microeconomic theory, including behavioural economics; econometrics, both micro-econometrics and time series; economic history and development and international economics.

The University of Oxford is ranked 8th in the world and 2nd in Europe in the most recent Tilburg University ranking of Economics departments, based on research contribution for the period between 2012-2016.

In the most recent Research Excellence Framework (REF 2014) to evaluate the research output of UK Universities, Oxford was first in overall research strength in Economics and Econometrics, with more research ranked as ‘world-leading’ than any other participating institution. In a submission of 84 FTE academics, 56% of our research was rated as ‘world-leading’ (4*) and a further 33% rated as ‘internationally excellent’ (3*).

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Policy and Impact

As one of Europe’s leading Economics departments, Oxford aims to inform and improve the development and implementation of economic and public policy in the UK and around the world. We do this by producing innovative research that extends the frontiers of the discipline and deepens our understanding of the operation of modern economies.

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Working Papers

Authors: Martin Ellison, Charles Brendon

Jan 2018

Abstract

This paper proposes and characterises a new normative solution concept for Kydland and Prescott problems, allowing for a commitment device. A policy choice is dominated if either (a) an alternative exists that is superior to it in a time-consistent subdomain of the constraint set, or (b) an alternative exists that Pareto-dominates it over time. Policies may be time-consistently undominated where time-consistent optimality is not possible. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for this to be true, and show that these are equivalent to a straightforward but significant change to the first-order conditions that apply under Ramsey policy. Time-consistently undominated policies are an order of magnitude simpler than Ramsey choice, whilst retaining normative appeal. This is illustrated across a range of examples.

JEL Codes: D02, E61

Keywords: Time Consistency; Undominated Policy; Ramsey Policy

Individual View

Authors: Alexander A. J. Wulfers

Jan 2018

Abstract

The Age of Mass Migration came to an end in the interwar period with new American immigration restrictions, but did this end affect some potential migrants more than others? I use previously unanalysed data from passenger lists of ships leaving Bremen, one of the major European ports of emigration, between 1920 and 1933, to identify occupations and skill levels of individual migrants. The main focus of the paper is on the role that policy played in influencing the selection of migrants. I study the American quota laws of 1921, 1924, and 1929, and find that increasingly strict quotas led to an increase in the skill level of migrants as well as a shift from agricultural to manufacturing workers first, and from manufacturing to professional workers later.

JEL Codes: J15, K37, N32, N34

Keywords: immigration policy, skill selection, quotas, United States, Bremen, interwar period

Individual View

Authors: Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, Alan de Bromhead, Alan Fernihough, Markus Lampe

Jan 2018

Abstract

A recent literature explores the nature and causes of the collapse in international trade during 2008 and 2009. The decline was particularly great for automobiles and industrial supplies; it occurred largely along the intensive margin; quantities fell by more than prices; and prices fell less for differentiated products. Do these stylised facts apply to trade collapses more generally? This paper uses detailed, commodity specific information on UK imports between 1929 and 1933, to see to what extent the trade collapses of the Great Depression and Great Recession resembled each other. It also compares the free trading trade collapse of 1929-31 with the protectionist collapse of 1931-3, to see to what extent protection, and gradual recovery from the Great Depression, mattered for UK trade patterns.

JEL Codes: F14, N74

Keywords: Great Depression; Great Recession; trade; protectionism

Individual View

Authors: David Ronayne, Greg Taylor

Jan 2018

Abstract

We study strategic interactions in a market where producers sell to consumers directly as well as via a competitive channel (CC) such as an online marketplace or price comparison website. We show how the size of the competitive channel can influence market outcomes. Equilibrium falls into one of two regimes: either the CC charges low commission and accommodates producers, or it charges high commission and faces strong competition from producers' direct sales channel. Seemingly procompetitive developments that increase the number of prices consumers check can raise prices and reduce consumer surplus. We also use the model to study an active policy issue concerning which channels should be allowed to utilize data about consumers' past purchases.

JEL Codes: JEL D43, D83, L11, M3

Individual View

Authors: Ian Crawford, Laura Blow

Jan 2018

Abstract

We investigate necessary and sufficient nonparametric conditions for mental accounting.

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