The Department of Economics is delighted to congratulate Max Marczinek, who has been nominated for the European Central Bank’s 2026 Young Economist Prize for his paper, Labour Scarcity and Productivity: Insights from the Last Nordic Plague.
The Young Economist Prize is the ECB’s annual research competition for PhD students, recognising young economists whose work brings fresh perspectives to major challenges facing Europe’s economy. The theme of the 2026 ECB Forum on Central Banking is “shaping Europe’s future: innovation, growth and stability”.
Max’s paper asks a question with clear relevance today: when workers become scarce, does this hold economies back, or can it encourage firms and regions to become more productive?
Using the last major plague outbreak in Northern Europe between 1708 and 1712 as a natural experiment, the paper examines how a sudden shortage of labour changed patterns of production, trade and productivity. Max finds that affected regions shifted towards more capital-intensive exports and increased their share of overseas markets, despite having fewer workers and higher wages.
The paper argues that labour scarcity encouraged producers to adapt by using more capital, experimenting with new goods and production methods, and becoming more efficient. These changes were persistent: while population levels recovered within around four decades, the effects on productivity and trade patterns lasted for almost a century.
The findings speak to urgent policy questions facing many advanced economies, including ageing populations, shrinking workforces and weak productivity growth. They suggest labour scarcity can create incentives for investment, innovation and productivity-enhancing change, provided institutions allow economies to adjust.
Max is supervised by Professor Banu Demir. His nomination is a wonderful recognition of the originality, ambition and policy relevance of his research.
The Department warmly congratulates Max on this achievement and wishes him every success in the competition!
