Many of the countries that are now among the poorest are stuck in a syndrome of fragility. Social, political, and economic characteristics interact in a dysfunctional, but locally stable, equilibrium. The transition from this trap requires highly distinctive International Financial Institution (IFI) policies. For much of the time, since the society is trapped by its own internal pressures, no IFI action can ignite transformation. But fragility periodically triggers potential change and during these “pivotal moments” IFI help can be decisive. However, because the situation is highly constrained, normal programs are liable to be ineffective. The path out of fragility must be set by the government and kept sufficiently simple that success gradually cumulates from seemingly modest early steps. The sinews of state effectiveness can be built, but the process of building them is analogous to erecting scaffolding: it cannot be understood by studying states that have long been in a well-functioning equilibrium.
