I completed my DPhil (PhD) in Economics at the University of Oxford and Nuffield College in 2015. I am currently a British Academy Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Department of Economics at the University of Oxford, and the co-director of the Oxford University project Climate Econometrics. For more information and my research please see my personal website: www.felixpretis.org.


Revise and Re-Submits

  1. "Econometric Modelling of Climate Systems: The Equivalence of Energy Balance Models and Cointegrated Vector Autoregressions"

    Revise and Resubmit at the Journal of Econometrics

Journal Publications

  1. "Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming"
    with Moritz Schwarz, Kevin Tang, Karsten Haustein, and Myles R Allen, 2017.  Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A. in press. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2016.0460.
  2. "General-to-Specific (GETS) Modelling And Indicator Saturation With The R Package Gets"
    with James Reade and Genaro Sucarrat, 2017. Journal of Statistical Software. in press. Working paper available online.
  3. "Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism"
    with Robert K. Kaufmann, Michael L. Mann, Sucharita Gopal, Jackie A. Liederman, Peter D. Howe, Xiaojing Tang, and Michelle Gilmore, 2017. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114(1), doi: 10.1073/pnas.1607032113
  4. "Carbon Dioxide Emission-Intensity in Climate Projections: Comparing the Observational Record to Socio-Economic Scenarios" with Max Roser 2017. Energy, 3, 718-725, doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.06.119
  5. "A new archive of large volcanic events over the past millennium derived from reconstructed summer temperatures"
    with Lea Schneider, Jason Smerdon, Claudia Hartl-Meier, and Jan Esper, 2017. Environmental Research Letters. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a1b.
  6. "Detecting Volcanic Eruptions in Temperature Reconstructions by Designed Break-Indicator Saturation"
    with Lea Schneider, Jason E. Smerdon, and David F. Hendry 2016. Journal of Economic Surveys. doi: 10.1111/joes.12148
  7. "Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation"
    with David F. Hendry, Jurgen A. Doornik, and Jennifer L. Castle, 2015. Econometrics, 3, 240-264, doi:10.3390/econometrics03020240
  8. "Testing Competing Models of the Temperature Hiatus: Assessing the effects of conditioning variables and temporal uncertainties through sample-wide break detection"
    with Michael L. Mann and Robert K. Kaufmann, 2015, Climatic Change, 131:4, 705-718, doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1391-5
  9. "Climate Science: Breaks in Trends"
    with Myles R. Allen, 2013. Nature Geoscience, 6, 992-993, doi:10.1038/ngeo2015
  10. "Some hazards in econometric modelling of climate change"
    with David F. Hendry, 2013. Earth System Dynamics, 4, 375-384, doi:10.5194/esd-4-375-2013.

Publications in Edited Volumes

  1. "All Change! The Implications of Non-stationarity for Empirical Modelling, Forecasting and Policy"
    with David F. Hendry (2016), Oxford Martin Policy Paper, (peer-reviewed).
  2. "Anthropogenic Influences on Atmospheric CO2"
    with David F. Hendry, 2013, Handbook on Energy and Climate Change. Ch. 12. R. Fouquet ed. Edward Elgar.

Paper: Econometric Modelling of Climate Systems: The Equivalence of Energy Balance Models and Cointegrated Vector Autoregressions

Areas of Expertise: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics, Applied Econometrics, EconometricsDownload Paper