Research finds that inadequate US pandemic response cost more American lives than World War I

Wednesday, 14 October 2020

New analysis from researchers at the University of Oxford finds that from March to July this year, Europe had a 28% lower rate of excess deaths than the US - contrary to claims by President Donald Trump that Europe experienced greater excess mortality than the US.

In a new article published today on, Janine Aron and John Muellbauer show that when comparing excess mortality rates, Europe's cumulative excess mortality rate from March to July is 28% lower than the US rate, contradicting some recent public claims.

The US has 4% of the world's population but 21% of the global COVID-19-attributed infections and deaths. The US Northeast - the region most comparable with individual European countries - has experienced substantially worse excess mortality than Europe's worst-affected countries.

Read the full article on

Janine Aron and John Muellbauer are Senior Fellows of the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School and associate members of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science.