The Ends of 30 Big Depressions

May 2020 | 896

Authors: Martin Ellison Sang Seok Lee, Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke

How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper we explore the argument that leaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations and lowering real interest rates. We do so for a sample of 30 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new dataset containing more than 230,000 monthly and quarterly observations for over 1,500 variables. In those cases where the departure from gold happened on clearly defined dates, it seems clear that inflationary expectations rose in the wake of departure. Synthetic matching techniques suggest that the relationship is causal.

Revised May 2020.

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