Andrew Farlow
Research Fellow in Economics, Oriel College, University of Oxford
Contact address: Oriel
College, Oxford, OX1 4EW
Contact number: +44 1865
276555
Email: andrew.farlow@economics.ox.ac.uk
MAY-JUNE ACTIVITIES:
31
May – 3 June 2010, Panama City, Panama. TDR
(UNICEF/UNDP/World Bank/WHO) Disease Reference Group (DRG) on Dengue and other
Emerging Viral Diseases of Public Health Importance, Stream 4: health policy
research contributing to adequate public health response.
Presentations: Factors Leading to Success
or Failure of National Programmes
Global Funding in Dengue
21-22
June 2010, Oriel College, Oxford. Stop TB Partnership Working Group on New Vaccines:
Task Force on Economics and Product Profiles
Presentation/s: Creating a Cost-Effectiveness Evidence Base
for TB Vaccines in the Context of Other Interventions
Financing for TB
Vaccines in a Financially Constrained World
FORTHCOMING BOOK: Crash & Beyond: Causes and Consequences of
the Global Financial Crisis’:
Oxford University Press,
December 2010 (estimated)

Read about it at OUP here
PREFACE
THE ROOTS OF THE CRISIS
1: The Growth of Global Economic Imbalances
2: Housing and Mortgage Market Excesses
3: Developments in the Global Financial System
4: The Crisis Unfolds
THE RESCUE
5: Principles of Financial Rescue and Prior Lessons
6: An Assessment of Rescue Efforts, 2007-2010
THE FUTURE
7: The Immediate Economic Aftermath and the Long-Term Fiscal Consequences
8: Regulatory Reform and Long-Term Stability
9: Lessons for Monetary and Central Bank Policy
REFLECTIONS
10: Conclusion
Research Interests:
Global Health: Pharmaceutical research and
development; global health financing and delivery; innovation and technology
transfer issues in global
health settings; measurement of
socioeconomic impact of health interventions; application of financial and risk
management tools to global health
analysis; market, pricing, and
launch strategies, especially in resource-poor settings. The approach is highly
interdisciplinary and policy-orientated,
mixing science, economics,
epidemiology, finance, and management practice
Financial Markets: Banking, equity, currency, and real estate; financial
instability; monetary policy; bubbles
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Oxford Conference on
Innovation and Technology Transfer for Global Health |
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Global Health, Vaccine Finance, and Neglected Disease
Research and Development |
WORK IN PROGRESS:
Various papers are in progress: ‘Key Issues in
the Economics of Pandemic Flu Vaccine’, ‘Prize Funds for Drugs
and Vaccines: Principles and Challenges’, ‘New Estimates of Drug Development
Costs; ‘An Evaluation and Patent
Pooling in Global Health’. A paper
analysing the burden of disease for dengue in Cambodia and Thailand is
awaiting data clearance before it can be published. A review of the evidence
for chickenpox and shingles vaccines has also just been completed and will be
submitted after the book manuscript is finished.
RECENT
ACTIVITY:
I have been writing a book for Oxford University
Press on the global financial crisis. The global health activity will resume
at a higher lever shortly. A Review of Malaria
Vaccine Candidate RTS,S/AS02A, January 2010. I recently contributed thoughts for a piece by Tatum Anderson in the British Medical
Journal on Innovative Financing of Health Care. Stop TB Partnership
Working Group on New Vaccines:
Task Force on Economics and Product Profiles. Meeting
wrap up presentation: Gaps and Plans, Veyrier-du-Lac, October 2009. Meeting
report. Meeting Executive
Summary. The third meeting of the Task Force will be in Oxford in the
summer of 2010 and will involve those in Oxford working on TB vaccines. Testimony
on evaluation framework, evaluation criteria and Inventory of financing
proposals for the WHO
Expert Working Group on R&D Financing ‘“Where’s all the
money gone?” Financial crisis and global health spending: Priority setting
past, present and future’, Vice Chancellor’s Global Health Research Forum, University of
Oxford. September 2009 “Financial
Meltdown and Neglected Diseases: Who will pay the price?” Talk given at launch event of first G-FINDER
(Global Funding of Innovation for Neglected Diseases) report, Royal
College of Physicians, London, February 2009. See the video of all speakers
and panel and audience discussion here.
Copy of talk here TB Vaccine
Scoping Study Part 1 (Epidemiology,
cost effectiveness and socioeconomic issues; Demand, revenue, adoption, pricing and cost issues) for the Task Force on Economics and Product Profiles, of
the Stop TB Working Group on New Vaccines (WHO, Aeras Global TB Vaccine
Foundation, and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation), December 2008. Meeting
Report. Meeting Executive
Summary TB Vaccine
Scoping Study Part 2 (Lessons
for TB from a selection of other vaccines) for
the Task Force on Economics and Product Profiles, of the Stop TB Working
Group on New Vaccines (WHO, Aeras Global TB Vaccine Foundation, and Bill and
Melinda Gates Foundation), December 2008 TB Vaccine
Discussion Points for Task Force on Economics and Product
Profiles, December 2008 Stop TB Working
Group on New Vaccines: Task Force on Economics and Product Profiles:
Discussion Point PowerPoint for first meeting, London School of Hygiene
and Tropical Medicine, 11-12 December 2008 Magnesium Sulfate for the
Management of Eclampsia and Pre-eclampsia: Some Economic and Cost Reflections,
PowerPoint presented in 2007, posted December 2008 following request Childhood
immunisation against varicella zoster virus, Editorial, British Medical
Journal, August 2008 (or toll free link)
Global Health Research Agenda, prepared following Oxford
Conference on Innovation and Technology Transfer for Global Health in
September 2007. The conference website, Innovation and Technology Transfer for
Global Health, no longer exists and therefore the files have been given a
section, below, on this webpage.
The
Malaria Product Pipeline: Planning for the Future. Major report by Moran
M., Guzman J., Ropars A., Jorgensen M., McDonald A., Potter S., and
Haile-Selassie H. The George Institute for International Health and Global
Forum for Health Research. With a colleague, Simone Ghislandi (see p. 93), we
provided the portfolio simulation framework used in this report for
projecting the future funding needs of the global malaria vaccine and drug
pipeline, working out the gaps and how to make the pipeline more optimal.
September 2007. See a ScienceDaily article about the findings of this report here.
Independent
assessment of the case for investment in tuberculosis vaccines. Report
prepared for Aeras Global TB Vaccine Foundation and Bill and Melinda Gates
Foundation, July 2007.This report (and associated Aeras/Gates meeting in
Washington at which I presented the findings) was an independent peer review
of key evidence and provision of my own evidence during the negotiations
between Aeras and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation over a $200m grant, at the
time the largest grant by the Foundation to a PDP (Product Development
Partnership). I am told that this report was important in identifying
potential commercial partners for the new MVA85A TB vaccine candidate
developed at the University of Oxford (see a press release here).
A
Global Medical Research and Development Treaty: An answer to global
health needs? International
Policy Network Working Papers on Intellectual Property, Innovation and
Health, June 2007
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Global economy, real estate markets, banking, emerging markets |
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Crash & Beyond: Causes and Consequences
of the Global Financial Crisis: Book forthcoming with Oxford University
Press, December 2010. The book
launch will be accompanied by the launch of a blog. A recent opinion piece on the global financial crisis can be found here The Global Financial Crisis: Causes and Cures Presentation at the International Consulting Economists' Association, The Institute of Commonwealth Studies, London,
February 2009 Housing, consumption, and the economy: Why
do house prices become misaligned, and what are the consequences? Part Three: UK
House Prices, Consumption and GDP in a Global Context January 2005. Recommended by Hamish McRae in the Independent on Sunday
I am told by investment banking colleagues that this was very prescient and
‘got many key points right’ about the crisis. Part three explores a range of
issues key to the global financial crisis of a few years later, including:
the unsustainable imbalances in global financial flows, savings, consumption
and government spending, particularly with respect to the US and China but
also the UK; the overly-loose monetary policy; the disregard for risk that
showed up in speculative investment in mortgage and housing markets in
particular many countries and the overuse of debt-based finance on a global
scale; the dangers when the financial bubble of the late 1990s shifted from
being equity-based to become debt-based in the 2000s, and the way in which it
would shift then to government balance sheets (a ‘shifting bubble’); the
precarious short-term revolving nature of much mortgage activity and the
potential for financial and real economic contagion to spread to the rest of
the world from problems in mortgage banking when that market finally proved
to be insufficiently deep and malfunctioned, and the way in which this would
put the US and its mortgage market, but also that of countries like the UK, at
the centre of a global downswing; the balance-sheet nature of the ensuing
economic problems as households sought to deleverage and increase their
savings at the same time as governments were much more fiscally burdened too;
the need in advance to hold smaller budget deficits in developed economies to
help cushion this impact when it came; the particular dangers for the UK
because of a growing government deficit and shrinking cushion, that made the
UK particularly vulnerable when correction eventually came; the
unconventional monetary policy that would be needed when standard interest
rate tools could not go below zero percent; and the knife-edge balance
between inflation and deflation during the recovery phase. Part Two: Bubbles and Buyers January 2004 version (updating of May 2003 version, prepared
for Credit
Suisse First Boston). Recommended by Martin Wolf in the Financial Times Out of
the blue, in April 2010 I was told that the article by Martin Wolf in the Financial Times that outlined the key arguments of Part One and Part Two of my
analysis running up to the recent financial crisis caused British Prime
Minister Tony Blair sufficient concern that he asked the UK Treasury for a
full briefing note. This got some coverage here: A Prime minister who knows something about
the economy? (“In fact, according to some documents
teased out of the Treasury ... it turns out Blair was rather more worried
about the state of the economy than you might have thought…It underlines the simple
fact that the Treasury under Gordon Brown was blind to the possibility that
things could go horribly wrong – even within the confines of Downing Street.
It turns out no-one was allowed to challenge the ‘end to boom and bust’ trope
– even Tony Blair himself”); here (which
contains the Freedom Of Information request, that I knew nothing about, that
led to this revelation, and also a link to the Treasury briefing); and here (the Treasury
briefing, in its comments regarding first time buyers, is described as an “admission from the
Treasury under Gordon Brown's reign as chancellor [that] runs counter to
previous government rhetoric...etc.”). It is always reassuring to hear that people in high places get
to hear about your work, less encouraging to hear that it didn’t make any
difference! Part Four: Risk premia in
housing markets Slightly shortened versions of the following
papers appeared for Oxford Analytica:
Bubbles and
Emerging Market Crises November 2003 Is the US Heading for a Fiscal Crisis? November 2003 |
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Selected recent
presentations, guest lectures, and meetings |
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2007-2010: My approach
to global health issues is highly collaborative. One objective has been to share
knowledge and learning across different groups working on similar themes;
good practice can therefore be picked up, shared and encouraged, and less
good approaches can be avoided and replaced. Just recently, this has been
extremely valuable in my thinking about TB and malaria vaccines, drugs and
diagnostics in particular. The research group held in-depth meetings with the
Malaria Vaccine Initiative
(MVI); International AIDS Vaccine Initiative
(IAVI); Aeras Global TB Vaccine Foundation;
Foundation for Innovative New
Diagnostics (FIND); International
Partnership for Microbicides (IPM); TB Alliance; PATH (Human papillomavirus, meningitis, and
Japanese encephalitis vaccine teams); Drugs
for Neglected Diseases Initiative (DNDi); Novartis Institute for Tropical
Diseases; Sanofi Pasteur; GlaxoSmithKline; InViragen; Hawaii Biotech; Merck Vaccines; Pfizer; WHO (Immunization Vaccines and Biologicals,
and Initiative for Vaccine
Research); GAVI Alliance; UNICEF; Oxford
Insect Technologies (OXITEC); Swiss
Tropical and Public Health Institute; Lille
University; Imperial College London;
Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group,
Zoology Department, Oxford; Atmospheric,
Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Oxford; the Institute for Emergent Infections of Humans,
James Martin 21st Century School, Oxford; and other Oxford infectious disease
mapping researchers. December 2010: UK
Department of Health, International Division, Stakeholder meeting ahead of
WHO Executive Board meeting in January 2010 October 2009: Fondation
Merieux, Veyrier-du-Lac, France. Second meeting of the
Task Force on Economics and Product Profiles for new TB vaccines
(WHO, Aeras Global TB Vaccine Foundation, and Bill and Melinda Gates
Foundation) September 2009: Vice Chancellor’s Global Health Research Forum,
University of Oxford: Presentation: ‘“Where’s all the money gone?” Financial crisis
and global health spending: Priority setting past, present and future’ March 2009: Joint Committee on
Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), varicella zoster subgroup meeting,
Department of Health, London February 2009: International
Consulting Economists' Association, The Institute of Commonwealth
Studies, London. Presentation: ‘The Global Financial Crisis: Causes and
Cures’ February 2009: G-FINDER
(Global Funding of Innovation for Neglected Diseases), George Institute
for international Health (project financed by Bill and Melinda Gates
Foundation) report launch meeting, Royal College of Physicians, London. Short
talk and panel member December 2008: London
School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. First meeting of the Task
Force on Economics and Product Profiles for new TB vaccines, presentation
(WHO, Aeras Global TB Vaccine Foundation, and Bill and Melinda Gates
Foundation) November 2008: Health Impact Fund meeting, Lincoln
College, Oxford. Response presentation and panel discussion November 2008: Zoology
Dept, University of Oxford, ‘Science and Public Health Policy’ presentation
and discussion October 2008: Pfizer
Inc Headquarters, New York, ‘Global Health
Access: The Challenges of Finance and Sustainability’ May 2007: WHO Geneva
missions (China, South Korea, Germany, Brazil). Discussions.
November 2006: Tanaka Business
School, Imperial College, London,
‘Brainstorming meeting on universal access to HIV medicines’ (Imperial
College London, Department for International
Development [DfID], International HIV/AIDS Alliance, and Stop AIDS Campaign).
Participant.
June 2005: Geneva,
Switzerland, WHO Commission on Intellectual Property Rights, Innovation and
Public Health, stakeholder meeting. Participant July 2003: Oriel
College, Oxford, Senior Library. During the celebrations to launch the Mandela
Rhodes Foundation, organised a public lecture on ‘Democracy in South Africa’
for Patricia de Lille, leader of the Independent Democrats, a South African
political party, who along with Nelson Mandela and others had helped to write
the new Constitution of South Africa. The lecture and discussion was attended
by about 100 Rhodes Scholars of all ages, including two US Senators.
Organised meetings with a range of UK government Ministers and officials and
with UK groups working on HIV. |
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Other academic
service, refereeing, advice, and consultancy |
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I try to be as generous
as I possibly can be regarding the work of a very wide range of global health
colleagues as we collectively explore how to improve and advance global
health policy. Co-organiser Oxford Conference on Innovation and
Technology Transfer for Global Health (with the generous financial
support of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation), and jointly in charge of
conference dissemination strategy. WHO
Expert Working Group on R&D Financing: Expert testimony on evaluation
framework, evaluation criteria and Inventory of financing proposals of the
EWG. Over the years I have promoted the notion of policy makers looking at
these issues through the lenses of ‘risk’ and ‘coordination’ and this is
reflected here. My testimony is here. Pharmaceutical R&D
Policy Project, LSE (which moved to the George Institute for International
Health) and the Health
Policy Division of the George
Institute for International Health, Australia; Help with developing
modelling tools (especially portfolio analysis of malaria drugs and vaccines
and thoughts on the G-Finder process, both financially supported by the Bill
and Melinda Gates Foundation) and pre-publication review. Dalberg, Global Development Advisors:
Advice on research into funding mechanisms and R&D incentives for malaria
(funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation). Independently
reviewed the IFF-Nd (International Financing Facility for Neglected Disease)
proposal when it was going through HM Treasury in 2007. Academic
contributor to work on extensions of the principle of the ‘Affordable
Medicines Facility for malaria’ (the financing mechanism to subsidize malaria
ACTs globally implemented by the Global Fund with strong support from the
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation) to other development topics inside and
outside of global health. Advice on Fund for R&D in Neglected Diseases
(FRIND). Results for Development
Institute: Early help thinking through how to set up rigorous and
independent analysis for a three-year project funded by the Bill and Melinda
Gates Foundation titled ‘Assessing
Innovations in Global Health R&D Policy and Financing’. Project Page here.
I hope to be able to make useful further contributions as the project
progresses. Office of Health Economics,
London: Feedback on a selection of work, including independent peer review of
R&D modelling by OHE for Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The X PRIZE Foundation: Advice on the design of
a prize
for effective diagnosis of tuberculosis in the developing world. Planning
grant to develop the prize provided by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The World Economic Forum, i.e.
‘Davos’, Global
Health Initiative, ''Tackling
Tuberculosis: The Business Response' 2008, reviewed report for authors. I am currently heavily
engaged in the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation’s efforts to improve the
management and efficiency of the dengue vaccine space. Watch this space as they say!
At the moment I am working in particular with a wide
range of colleagues in WHO, industry and academia on the idea of creating
more rigorous and independent cost effectiveness analysis, and encouraging
more decision-making capacity in countries themselves to use that analysis so
that they have more influence over the funding decisions at the global level.
Part of this effort involves thinking about better measurement of both inputs
and health outcomes. Routledge: Economic book referee Oxford University Press: Economic book
referee Joint Committee on
Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI): Peer review analysis of cost
effectiveness evidence submitted to JCVI JCVI, Subcommittee on
varicella zoster (chickenpox, shingles): Member
The Lancet: Academic referee Oxford Review of Economic Policy:
Academic Referee National Institute for Health Research:
Research grant peer reviewer World Bank: Academic Referee British Council: Grant peer
reviewer Centre for Global Development: insights,
contributions and comments on front-loading
finance into vaccines and other global health work. |
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Teaching at Oxford |
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I currently teach microeconomics
for Finals students at Oriel College. I also teach ‘Vaccine
Deployment and Policies’ for the Vaccinology
Module of the Masters of
Science (MSc) in Global Health. I have advised Oxford
students and researchers on a wide range of global health research projects.
Recent projects have included: i)
The R&D issues
surrounding pediatric antiretrovirals for children with HIV; ii)
Vaccine strategies
(in particular choice of vaccine) for global polio eradication; iii)
A comparative study
of health system performance in several developing countries; iv)
The financial
aspects of developing a telediagnostic kit and service for malaria and
chikungunya infections in rural areas of Kenya; v)
Needle-free vaccine
technologies; vi)
Global health IP
issues; vii)
Product Development
Partnerships, governance and incentive issues; viii)
Pneumococcal
vaccines; ix)
The economics of
thermostable vaccines; x)
‘Innovative’ global
health financing. As best I can, I also give feedback to students from
outside Oxford who enquire about their global health research projects. In 2004-2006, I was an
Exam Moderator for the Prelims Economics component of the degrees of
Philosophy, Politics & Economics, and History & Economics, at the
Department of Economics, University of Oxford. I have also been an M.Phil.
thesis examiner. I was in charge of
Economics studies at Oriel College for six years till 2006, teaching both
macroeconomics and microeconomics at all levels, before concentrating on my
global health research agenda. I previously taught (microeconomics,
macroeconomics, industrial organisation, banking, and finance) at several
other colleges of the University of Oxford: I was Tutor for Economics at Christ
Church College, St. Edmund Hall, Hertford College, Worcester College, and
Keble College. I was part-time
research officer for a year at Oxford's (then) Institute of Economics and
Statistics. |
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Oxford Conference on Innovation and Technology
Transfer for Global Health |
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In
2007 I helped to organise a conference on innovation, technology transfer and
global health. Together with Gill Samuels, Foundation Chair of the Global
Forum for Health Research, I was in charge of gathering the lessons and
disseminating the findings. Most of the work for write-up was done by
Rachelle Harris and Sarah Miller. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
generously paid the costs of thirty delegates from developing and
middle-income countries so that the discussion was firmly rooted in their
experiences. With the kind permission of his widow, we called these supported
delegates ‘Sanjaya Lall Fellows’ in memory of Oxford Economist Sanjaya Lall.
The Foundation also generously provided funds towards the conference write-up
and long-term dissemination of findings. The ‘inaugural’ conference was held in Oxford in September
2007. The files were held on a purpose-made webpage for a year. After this
was switched off by the business school, the files were transferred here for
storage. If funding and logistics ever permit, a follow-on conference will be
arranged. IN
MEMORY OF SANJAYA LALL: Sanjaya Lall, A primer on industrial and
technological innovation MAIN
CONFERENCE FILES: Conference Themes: A research agenda for the
future Final
Report Executive Summary List of
Delegates and their Affiliations REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL SESSIONS:
Plenary
Lecture by Dr Carlos Morel of the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Brazil Session
1: Dimensions of the Challenge Session
2: Strategies for Securing Product Availability and Access Session
3: The Interface of Science, Technology Transfer and Access Session
4: Partnerships in Promoting Innovation and Managing Risk (I) Session
5: Partnerships in Promoting Innovation and Managing Risk (II) Session
6: Managing Intellectual Property for Health and Agricultural Innovation Session
7: Financing for Innovation and Technology Transfer THE CONFERENCE PLENARY LECTURE: Morel,
Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Brazil A SELECTION OF INDIVIDUAL
PRESENTATIONS: These
are some of the presentations that are not password protected. Several
presentations were password protected and are no longer available. Abboud,
IAVI, USA Farlow,
University of Oxford, UK Flores, Flores & Associados, Universidad de Concepcion, Chile Free, PATH,
USA Ganguli,
Vision-IPR, India Geraghty,
Genzyme Corporation, USA Jaffe,
University of Oxford, UK Lippoldt,
OECD, France Madkour,
Library of Alexandria, Egypt Makinde,
NEPAD, Senegal Mallett,
Pfizer Inc., USA Maskus,
University of Colorado, USA Moran,
The George Institute, Australia Morris,
African Centre for GeneTechnologies, South Africa Purohit,
Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd, India Rangel-Aldao,
Simon Bolivar University, Venezuela Reeler,
Axios International, France Satyanarayana,
Indian Council of Medical Research, India
Sundari,
The Center for Health System and Policy Research and Development, MOH, Rep.
Indonesia Towse,
Office of Health Economics, UK |
Department of Economics, University of
Oxford
Oriel College, University of Oxford (Virtual Tour of Oriel
College)
The University of Oxford homepage (Virtual Tour of Oxford)
Oxford Conferences on Innovation and
Technology Transfer for Global Health