John N Muellbauer
Ph.D., University of California, FBA, Fellow of Econometric Society, Fellow of the European Economic Association
Official Fellow of Nuffield College and Professor of Economics, Oxford University.
College or Institution: Nuffield College
Email address: .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
Research Interests
Summary: Applied work on the UK economy; housing markets and the economy; household behaviour; productivity.
Professor Muellbauer is primarily an applied macroeconomist, though his microeconomic textbook with Angus Deaton, Economics and Consumer Behaviour, CUP 1980, is still in print. His 1980 paper with Angus Deaton, ‘An Almost Ideal Demand System’ in the American Economic Review was selected as one of the top twenty papers published in the first one hundred years of that journal. One important aim of his current research is to achieve a better understanding of interactions between the financial sector and the real economy. A major element is to study the impact of credit market liberalization on consumer debt, spending and housing markets in the UK, US, and Australia and non‐liberalisation in Japan to throw new light on monetary transmission, financial stability and monetary policy. Closely related is studying the determinants of mortgage defaults in the UK, and examining forecast scenarios highly relevant to stress‐testing of the banking system. Other recent research includes modelling house prices and mortgage stocks in major economies, regional housing and labour markets in the UK, modelling and forecasting inflation and exchange rate passthrough and forecasting growth in the G7 countries. The macroeconomics of the South African economy is a continuing research interest. An important theme in his research has been the impact of institutional differences both across countries and through time, on monetary transmission and macroeconomic fluctuations. He has contributed extensively to the UK debate over housing market issues, including property taxation, and also to the argument as to whether the UK should join the Euro.
He is a Fellow of the British Academy and of the Econometric Society.
Courses Taught at the University
Note: These web-links are only available within the University
Research Group(s)
Recent Working Papers
- Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption: Evidence from South Africa (2011)
- Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions (2010)
- Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: Evidence from the UK, Japan and the US (2010)
- Some Issues in Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in South Africa (2009)
- Monetary Policy and Inflation Modeling in a more Open Economy in South Africa (2008)
- Multi-sector inflation forecasting - quarterly models for South Africa (2008)
- New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA (2008)
- Inflation dynamics and trade openness: with an application to South Africa (2007)
- Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel (2006)
- Towards Official Balance Sheet Estimates for South Africa`s Household Sector (2006)
- see more working papers by this author
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Category: Faculty