Degree: Ph.D., University of California, FBA, Fellow of Econometric Society, Fellow of the European Economic Association
Office: Eagle House
Oxford OX2 6ED
Website: Personal Website
Latest working papers
- Modelling and Forecasting Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure in the UK.
- Conditional Eurobonds and the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis
- When is a housing market overheated enough to threaten stability?
- Tobin Lives: Integrating evolving credit market architecture into flow of funds based macro-models
- Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption: Evidence from South Africa
- Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions
Official Fellow, Nuffield College, Professor of Economics
Applied work on the UK economy; housing markets and the economy; household behaviour; productivity.
Summary: Professor Muellbauer is primarily an applied macroeconomist, though his microeconomic textbook with Angus Deaton, Economics and Consumer Behaviour, CUP 1980, is still in print. His 1980 paper with Angus Deaton, ‘An Almost Ideal Demand System’ in the American Economic Review was selected as one of the top twenty papers published in the first one hundred years of that journal. One important aim of his current research is to achieve a better understanding of interactions between the financial sector and the real economy. A major element is to study the impact of credit market liberalization on consumer debt, spending and housing markets in the UK, US, and Australia and nonâ€liberalisation in Japan to throw new light on monetary transmission, financial stability and monetary policy. Closely related is studying the determinants of mortgage defaults in the UK, and examining forecast scenarios highly relevant to stressâ€testing of the banking system. Other recent research includes modelling house prices and mortgage stocks in major economies, regional housing and labour markets in the UK, modelling and forecasting inflation and exchange rate passthrough and forecasting growth in the G7 countries. The macroeconomics of the South African economy is a continuing research interest. An important theme in his research has been the impact of institutional differences both across countries and through time, on monetary transmission and macroeconomic fluctuations. He has contributed extensively to the UK debate over housing market issues, including property taxation, and also to the argument as to whether the UK should join the Euro.